Why is President Trump good for the Philippines? He has withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, prohibits exploitative child labor and forced labor; ensures the right to collective bargaining; and prohibits employment discrimination.
Philippine agriculture and retail and many small businesses depend on child labor and forced labor. The TPP would have subjected the Philippines (especially its exporters) to charges of violations of child and labor rights, non-payment of minimum wage and benefits for formal work. With the US out of the TPP, the Philippines loses a major excuse for joining it and escapes the consequences that would have ensued with violations.
Also, the TPP would have meant high-priced software and medicines produced by multinationals because of the treaty’s strong copyright protection provisions and severe sanctions for violations. Without the TPP, Filipinos would have access to pirated and cheaper software and cheaper medicines.
Besides, the Philippines doesn’t really have anything to sell to the world, except humans. It has a very insignificant and weak manufacturing sector, outside of food and beer.
President Trump is good for President Duterte and Duterte has been good for Filipinos. He says they “have the same mouth.”
Trump won’t mind any human rights violations in Duterte’s current violent anti-drugs campaign, unless the violations become so outrageous they trigger worldwide condemnation (such as the killing by the police while under police custody of the Korean businessman who was kidnapped for ransom by the police. I agree that PNP Chief General Bato should resign and form an entirely new Philippine National Police. The present PNP is beyond reform).
“We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone,” Trump declared in his inaugural address. With his “America First,” Trump abandons America’s commitment declared by John Kennedy in his stirring inaugural speech wherein he said, “Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”
So liberty, no. But territory? Now, that’s another matter.
Still, Trump’s secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, told a US Senate confirmation hearing “we are the only global superpower with the means and the moral compass capable of shaping the world for good. If we do not lead, we risk plunging the world deeper into confusion and danger.” When he said that, Tillerson, however, might have been just pandering to the Democrats in the Senate to get his confirmation.
Trump will try to check China’s island-grabbing military and territorial expansion in the South China Sea. Tillerson has referred to China’s island-building to “Russia taking over Crimea.” “They are taking territory or control or declaring control of territories that are not rightfully China’s,” Tillerson said. At a press briefing Monday (Tuesday in Manila), White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer vowed the US would “make sure that we protect our interests” in the resource-rich trade route. “It’s a question of if those islands are in fact in international waters and not part of China proper, then yeah, we’re going to make sure that we defend international territories from being taken over by one country,” the combative Spicer told reporters Monday.
Some $5 trillion worth of goods pass through the South China Sea, according to our own Defense Secretary, Delfin Lorenzana.
Trump’s belligerent anti-China stance could mean Duterte could play the China card vis-à-vis the US and his friendship with Trump vis-à-vis Beijing. So Duterte gets the best of both worlds—increased trade, loans, assistance and investments from China—a great boost to the President’s focus on infrastructure and job generation, while enjoying the protective umbrella of the power of the US Seventh Fleet.
Trump is an acoustics and optics-type president. He likes fire and brimstone. That is why he has assembled for his defense and security and intelligence management who are, tough guys, and to use his own words, “the greatest of killers.”
In the cabinet, there are three former generals, James “Mad Dog” Mattis (Defense) and John Kelly (Homeland Security and anti-terrorism), both former marines; and Michael Flynn (national security).
Described as an intellectual in Genghis Khan clothing, a “Warrior Monk,” and another General Patton, Mattis once said “it’s fun to shoot some people”. At the time he said (in San Diego), he was not referring to the Chinese. He also once told Iraq military leaders, “I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you f–k with me, I’ll kill you all.” His favorite slogan: “Marines don’t know how to spell the word defeat.” His advice to his soldiers before the second Iraq invasion: “Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everybody you meet.”
Meanwhile, a retired Marine Corps four-star general, Kelly, is the highest ranking officer who lost a son, a marine lieutenant, in Iraq (he stepped on a landmine in 2010).
So expect fireworks, if not outright firepower, to spark in the South China Sea. And that will be good for the Philippines.
As for Mr. Flynn, well, The Economist calls him “a gifted intelligence officer” but recalls that “he was sacked as head of the Defense Intelligence Agency in 2014, allegedly for poor management skills.”
In practical terms, such a description would mean: The US has the right info on the Chinese. They send warrior ships. One of the warrior ships, however, fires on the wrong target (Remember: China’s ships in the islets and island it occupies in the South China are not supposed to be war ships but coast guard boats, civilians).