As Indonesia moves into the second half of 2025, the outlook for consumer loan growth appears to be weakening. A recent report from CGS International emphasizes that banks are tightening their lending practices, which could spell trouble for borrowers seeking loans. Stakeholders are taking note as rejection rates for applications rise and down payment requirements for auto loans increase.
According to CGS International, raw data from their on-the-ground checks reveals a noticeable tightening in risk parameters across banks. “We have also seen consecutive increases in mortgage rates from Bank Central Asia (BBCA), the market leader in consumer loans, over the past few months since end-FY2024,” noted analysts Handy Noverdanius, Owen Tjandra, and Elizabeth Noviana. When a bank as influential as BBCA adjusts its rates, it’s usually a signal that something larger is at play in the economy.
The issue of non-performing loans (NPLs) is becoming increasingly pressing. CGS International reports that NPLs for consumer loans have crept up since 2024, with Q1 2025 figures showing an increase to 2.08%. This marks a rise of 28 basis points compared to Q1 2024 and a 19 basis points uptick year-to-date. Disturbingly, mortgage NPLs are experiencing an even sharp uptick, reaching their highest levels since October 2020, which calls into question the stability of this segment.
In the broader banking landscape, a similar trend is evident among major banks, albeit at a lower magnitude, with an increase of 22 basis points year-on-year and 14 basis points year-to-date as of Q1 2025. CGS International attributes this to soft macroeconomic conditions, fueling fears of a knock-on effect within the consumer loan sector.
The analysts forecast a lag of 6 to 12 months for the repercussions of rising NPLs to fully express themselves, potentially constraining growth in consumer loan segments significantly. As the landscape evolves, growth in consumer loans was recorded at 1.9% year-to-date and 8.7% year-on-year as of May 2025. However, as lending conditions tighten, these figures could soon morph from optimistic to fraught with caution, making the future of consumer spending on borrowed money in Indonesia uncertain.
What key changes in lending practices have been observed by CGS International?
CGS International has noted a tightening of risk parameters among banks, leading to increased rejection rates for loan applications and higher down payment requirements for auto loans.
How are non-performing loans affecting the consumer loan market in Indonesia?
Non-performing loans in the consumer segment have risen to 2.08% as of Q1 2025, with mortgage NPLs experiencing significant increases, reaching levels not seen since October 2020.
What are the projections for consumer loan growth moving forward?
Analysts estimate that the impact of rising NPLs will cause a slowdown in consumer loan growth over the next 6 to 12 months, with current growth rates at 1.9% year-to-date and 8.7% year-on-year as of May 2025.
