Singapore has taken over from Indonesia as the leading stock market in Southeast Asia. This shift has come as Indonesia’s market capitalization has dropped dramatically due to an uncertain future outlook. From its peak in January, the total market capitalization of Indonesian businesses has fallen by over 30% to US$618 billion. In contrast, the market value in Singapore has increased to $645 billion.
Investor confidence in Indonesia has seen a decline in recent months due to the possibility of its equities market being downgraded to frontier status. This uncertainty is coupled with Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Ratings both downgrading the country’s credit outlook to negative. The Indonesian stock index is currently among the most underperforming globally, and the rupiah has hit record lows repeatedly.
Despite these setbacks, Soh Chih Kai of Lion Global Investors believes that a future recovery should not be dismissed. However, he notes that the current momentum is not in Indonesia’s favor. In contrast, he points out that Singapore’s market has further strengthened its position as capital flows continue to seek certainty amid global policy ambiguity.
In an attempt to bolster the economy, Indonesia’s central bank recently increased its policy interest rates for the first time in two years. This move aims to support the rapidly falling rupiah currency. Governor Perry Warjiyo explained that the increase is a further step to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate in the face of global volatility.
On the other hand, Singapore’s equities have been boosted by political and economic stability, along with government-led market reforms. The Straits Times Index reached a record high this week, as investors looked for safe investments amid the instability caused by the Iran war.
Head of research at Maybank Securities, Thilan Wickramasinghe, noted that Singapore’s equity market has remained resilient despite ongoing global volatility. This resilience is due to its defensive sector composition and consistent inflows, putting the market in a relatively advantageous position.
Singapore’s equities are projected to outperform Indonesian stocks by a record margin in 2026. Carmen Lee, head of equity research at OCBC, attributes this to wealth being a significant driver for earnings growth. Paired with a strong Singapore dollar, Lee expects more funds to flow into the market.
What has led to the decline in Indonesia’s market capitalization?
Investor confidence in Indonesia has deteriorated due to the potential reclassification of its equities market to frontier status and negative revisions in the country’s credit outlook.
What steps has Indonesia’s central bank taken to support the economy?
Indonesia’s central bank has raised its policy interest rates for the first time in two years in order to support the rupiah currency, which has fallen to record lows recently.
What factors have contributed to the strength of Singapore’s equities market?
Singapore’s equities have been boosted by the country’s political and economic stability, along with market reforms driven by the government.
