Vietnam exported 964,000 tonnes of coffee in the first 7 months of 2024, worth nearly US$3.54 billion, down 13.8% in volume but up 30.9% in value compared to the same period last year.
The Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Vietnam Industry and Trade Information Center forecast that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the remaining months of the third quarter would decrease due to low supply.
Supply will not increase until October, when the 2024-25 coffee harvest begins. Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development show that the country’s coffee output is estimated at 1.47 million tonnes in the 2023-24 crop year, the lowest level in four years, down 20% compared to the 2022-23 crop year.
Coffee output in the 2024-25 crop year is forecasted to continue to decrease due to unfavorable weather factors.
Without including the inventory carried over from the previous year, Vietnam will only have about 200,000 tonnes left to export from now until September.
However, the Vietnamese coffee industry will benefit in terms of price.
The Global Robusta coffee prices would fluctuate in a strong and prolonged upward trend due to concerns about scarce supply from Vietnam.
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the world may face a shortage of Robusta coffee of up to 35 million bags (60kg/bag) by 2040.
