Chinese Consumer Confidence Tested Amid Growing Travel and Spending
The recent May Day holiday has emerged as a significant indicator of consumer sentiment in China, showcasing a blend of heightened travel activity and modest spending. The five-day celebration, traditionally a peak time for family trips, witnessed a notable uptick in travel, while per capita expenditures lagged behind pre-pandemic levels.
During the May Day holiday, approximately 10.9 million travelers moved in and out of the country, marking an impressive 28.7% increase compared to 2024. Among them, 1.1 million were international visitors, reflecting a robust 43.1% rise, according to the official Xinhua news agency. This resurgence in travel underscores a rebound in consumer patterns following previous years of restrictions.
Despite the surge in visitors, average spending per person over the holiday reached 574.1 yuan (approximately $79), a modest increase of 1.5%. This figure still trails behind 2019 levels, which recorded per capita spending at 603.4 yuan. This discrepancy highlights ongoing challenges facing consumer confidence in China amidst economic fluctuations and external pressures.
Data from China’s tourism ministry revealed 314 million domestic trips during the May holiday, signifying a 6.5% increase from the previous year. Notably, transactions through Weixin Pay, a prevalent payment platform, surged by over 10% year-on-year, especially in restaurant sectors, indicating strong consumer engagement in specific areas.
While travel and dining have seen positive trends, the cinema industry faced setbacks, with total box office receipts plummeting to 747 million yuan over the holiday – about half of what was generated in 2024. This decline raises questions about consumer interest in entertainment options during holiday periods.
Recent surveys highlight a slowdown in the services sector’s new order growth, reflecting heightened uncertainty due to U.S. tariffs. The Caixin/S&P Global services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dipped to 50.7 in April, down from 51.9 in March, indicating the lowest growth rate since September.
Despite initial optimism fueled by government stimulus, China’s broader economic landscape remains fragile, grappling with deflationary risks. The services PMI, deemed a reliable indicator of the economic pulse among smaller firms, suggests a sharp decrease in new business growth, although modest recovery in export orders has been noted thanks to tourism.
With around 48% of the workforce employed in the services sector, the potential impacts of U.S.-China trade tensions resonate deeply within an economy predominantly driven by domestic consumption. As challenges mount, experts suggest that restoring consumer confidence and enhancing spending strategies will be crucial in navigating the post-holiday period.
Short-term measures such as consumption vouchers could invigorate domestic demand, while longer-term strategies focused on improving service quality and availability will be vital. Economic analysts stress the need to foster a positive consumer sentiment to unlock savings and stimulate growth in the retail sector.
Potential Impact on the Retail Sector
The mixed signals from the May Day holiday highlight crucial dynamics in China’s retail landscape. While travel and dining sectors display signs of resurgence, overall consumer spending trends indicate a cautious recovery. The retail sector’s adaptability will be tested as it navigates these evolving consumer behaviors in a challenging economic environment.
1. What was the increase in travel during the May Day holiday in China? Approximately 10.9 million travelers entered and exited the country, representing a 28.7% increase compared to last year.
2. How much did per capita spending change during the holiday? Average spending per person rose by 1.5% to 574.1 yuan, but it remains below pre-pandemic levels from 2019.
3. What sectors showed contrasting performance during this holiday? While sectors such as dining benefitted from increased spending, the cinema industry suffered a downturn, with ticket sales falling to about half of last year’s take.
