The second-largest economy in the world is currently experiencing a dual-speed growth pattern. While factories are flourishing due to robust exports, domestic demand is on a downward trajectory due to an ongoing slump in the property market.
In May, retail sales, which serve as a critical measure of consumption, decreased by 0.6%, a significant drop from April’s 0.2% rise, and below the predicted 0.0%. This decline in retail sales marks the first reduction since December 2022. Even the extended Labour Day holiday was unable to boost consumer morale, and the government’s consumer goods trade-in initiative is gradually losing its effectiveness. An inflated base from the previous year’s May further added to this downturn.
According to Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, the disappointing retail sales data puts increased pressure on the government to contemplate policy measures aimed at stabilizing consumption. “Policy ‘fine tuning’ is anticipated around July, following the release of the second quarter GDP data,” Zhang added.
On the other hand, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that industrial output in May grew by 4.5% compared to the previous year, an increase from the 4.1% growth recorded in April. This rise surpassed the projected 4.3% increase.
A boom in global AI investment and related tech demand has allowed the world’s largest manufacturer to counterbalance the anticipated export blow from the Iran war. However, a 19.4% increase in exports has yet to positively impact domestic consumption.
The economic weakness was particularly noticeable in the automotive sector, as domestic car sales suffered a decline for the eighth consecutive month in May. This trend hints at a diminishing demand in the world’s biggest car market, a pressure that is expected to linger throughout the year.
Senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, Xu Tianchen, identified several divisions in the May economy. “The divide between domestic and external demand, the divide between AI and traditional industries, and the divide between goods retail and services consumption,” he mentioned.
He expects the second quarter’s economic growth to slow down to 4.5% from the first quarter’s 5%.
Growing investment weakness and ongoing property drag
Investment figures were also significantly weaker than expected. Fixed-asset investment dropped by 4.1% in the first five months of 2025, a fall from the 1.6% decrease recorded from January to April. Economists had anticipated a 2% decline.
According to NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui, this fall is partially due to extreme weather conditions in several regions, as well as the shift from old to new growth drivers. Fu added that China still has substantial room for future investment, with urbanisation, rural revitalisation, the development of new quality productive forces, and public service improvements all requiring support.
What contributed to the decline in retail sales in May?
Several factors contributed to the decline in retail sales in May, including a lack of consumer confidence, the waning effectiveness of the government’s trade-in scheme, and a high base from the same period last year.
How are the car sales in China currently?
Car sales within China have been on the decline, with May marking the eighth consecutive month of decreasing sales. This is indicative of a softened demand in the world’s largest auto market.
What are the expectations for China’s economic growth?
It’s anticipated that China’s economic growth may slow in the second quarter, dropping to 4.5% from 5% in the first quarter. While it might not be difficult to achieve a full-year growth target of 4.5-5%, the sluggish domestic demand may necessitate policy intervention in the second half of the year.
