An estimated 177,000 square meters of new retail space is on the horizon, set to make waves in Manila’s market by the second half of 2025. As the bustling holiday season approaches, tenants are revamping their strategies and gearing up for a promising turnaround. JLL’s latest report highlights that this influx of new store openings in prime malls may counterbalance the negative absorption reported in the first half of the year.
According to the report, the significant volume of new supply is likely to challenge the market’s resilience. However, it also points to a silver lining: improving consumer sentiments and lower borrowing costs are expected to facilitate a gradual absorption of new spaces. With this context, rents are projected to increase by the end of the year alongside a rise in leasing activity.
In the second quarter of 2025, net absorption dipped further to -20,700 square meters, continuing a downward trend that started in the first quarter. Notably, Mandaluyong and Muntinlupa accounted for most of the move-outs, while Quezon City and Makati City saw a flurry of new store openings, reflecting a dynamic albeit challenging landscape.
The food and beverage sector remains the powerhouse for new store openings, confirming its dominance in the retail space. Interestingly, general retail has also shown resilience, emerging as a top contender for new entries this quarter, signaling ongoing expansion even amid cautious market conditions.
Retail supply held steady in Q2 2025 as developers opted to stagger completions to the latter half of the year. With 177,000 square meters of additional space anticipated before year-end, analysts caution that this new supply could further inflate vacancy rates, which already crept up to 7.5%—an increase of 33.9 basis points quarter-on-quarter—mainly attributed to slower store openings.
While retail rents saw a slight uptick of 0.5%, reaching PHP 1,759 per square meter per month, operators are maintaining stable asking prices to keep demand alive. On the investment front, capital values are modestly appreciating at PHP 239,532 per square meter, indicating a careful approach among investors. However, the central bank’s recent interest rate cut to 5.5% is anticipated to boost investor confidence and expedite pending deals as financing becomes more accessible.
In a retail landscape that seems to be a game of chess, strategists are positioning themselves for the next big play. Who knows? The unexpected twists and turns ahead could make for an exhilarating game as 2025 unfolds.
What are the key expectations for Manila’s retail market in H2 2025?
Analysts anticipate a surge of new store openings, totaling 177,000 square meters, which could improve market conditions despite a challenging first half, as consumers become more confident.
Which areas are experiencing the most retail movement?
Mandaluyong and Muntinlupa have seen significant move-outs, while Quezon City and Makati City are witnessing a rise in new store openings.
How are rental rates trending in the current market?
Rental rates are showing stability with a slight increase of 0.5% in Q2 2025, while operators maintain stable asking prices to foster demand amidst growing vacancies.
