As the largest hedge fund in the world whose respected economic and political viewpoint has become increasingly important in public economic policy discussions, Dalio and his global analysis is in consistent demand from sophisticated institutional and high net-worth retail investors. Over the past year ValueWalk has published nearly two dozen articles chronicling the organization’s thoughts on significant economic matters.
In regards to statements about China’s faltering economy and the odd focus on the retail investor, Bridgewater says they were simply and accurately noting a market fact that had repercussions. It was an observation not to be given an extraordinary amount of significance.
“The observations that were made simply noted that falling stock prices have a negative wealth and negative psychological effect. When a classic stock market bubble (supported by unsophisticated investors buying stocks on a lot of margin) bursts there are negative growth effects,” the statement said, downplaying the significance of the retail aspect of the analysis in making forward looking projections.
In the original Bridgewater analysis the firm was clear to point out that it was economic statistics that would determine their outlook going forward. “When combined with the debt and economic restructurings underway, that will most likely result in slower growth, and more simulative government policies to offset these downward pressures,” the report said.
Rather than sound an entirely negative note, the world’s largest hedge fund looked on the positive side as well as considering the negative. “Bridgewater’s view that China faces debt and economic restructuring challenges, and that it has the resources and the capable leaders to manage these challenges, remains the same.”
Two distinct approaches going forward: “Hunting time” and cautiously monitoring economic statistics
For investors there appear to be two approaches.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc said “its hunting time” in China, potentially being the first and most aggressive to call the low in the region. This comes at a time when certain algorithmic signals are also pointing to stock market normalization and the market experiencing a normal mean reversion retracement off a dramatic market move over the past year. Past performance is never indicative of future analysis, and algorithmic systems based on past performance statistics, like all investment analysis, is never perfect. In fact, when considering algorithmic investment signals degrees of probability are used to evaluate different future paths.
Bridgewater appears to be rather pointing out issues with China that investors should consider and taking a wait and see attitude on economic numbers and the economic fallout before making such a bold claim. Its a fundamental, discretionary analysis that is watching for further impact.
Who will be correct, Goldman and their early call on China or Bridgewater’s wait and see approach? Its hard to tell at this point, but the next several months could be an interesting time to watch as China, the potential withdrawal of quantitative easing and yes, even Greece, may all come into market focus this fall.
The full Bridgewater Associates statement is below:
While the report to Bridgewater clients is a private communication which they want to continue to try to keep private, Ray Dalio and Bridgewater believe that too much has been made of the shift in their thinking and want to clarify their thinking.
The observations that were made simply noted that falling stock prices have a negative wealth and negative psychological effect. When a classic stock market bubble (supported by unsophisticated investors buying stocks on a lot of margin) bursts there are negative growth effects. When combined with the debt and economic restructurings underway, that will most likely result in slower growth, and more simulative government policies to offset these downward pressures.
Bridgewater’s view that China faces debt and economic restructuring challenges, and that it has the resources and the capable leaders to manage these challenges, remains the same.
