In a striking reflection of the challenges posed by climate change, coffee prices surged globally by approximately 40% in 2024, as highlighted by a recent study from the Food and Agriculture Organization. This surge is largely attributed to adverse weather conditions affecting production in key coffee-producing countries such as Brazil, Colombia, and Indonesia, while demand escalates in Europe, the US, and Asia.
Amid this global upheaval, Vietnam’s coffee sector appears to be capitalizing on the situation, with export turnover exceeding $560 million last month alone. This impressive figure has propelled the total export value for the first seven months of the year to a remarkable $3.6 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 20%, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment. The major driver behind this thriving export performance is the spike in global coffee prices.
As the world’s leading exporter of Robusta coffee, Vietnam holds an estimated 40% share of the global market. Nguyen Nam Hai, the president of the Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association (Vicofa), noted that the international coffee landscape has never appeared more promising. High prices and growing demand, paired with Vietnam’s stable supply, put the country in a fortuitous position to expand its market share.
However, to fully leverage this opportunity, Vietnam must shift its focus toward deeper processing. Hai emphasized that relying solely on raw bean exports limits potential gains. While export values are climbing, the structural makeup of Vietnam’s coffee products reveals considerable shortcomings. Currently, only 12-15% of total exports fall into the deep-processing category, which includes roasted, instant, and specialty coffee — a figure that pales in comparison to Brazil and Colombia’s 30-40% ratio.
Le Hoang Diep Thao, founder and CEO of TNI King Coffee, weighed in on this issue, noting that investing in deep processing can significantly enhance product value. Yet, she cautioned that the initial investment can be daunting, particularly for instant coffee technology, requiring hundreds of billions of Vietnamese dong. Not all companies possess the financial capacity for such ventures.
Technological barriers and branding challenges further complicate Vietnam’s transition toward deep processing. While substantial investment has been made by major players like Vinacafé, Trung Nguyên, and Nestlé, many small and medium-sized enterprises struggle to keep pace. While Vietnam is recognized for its production volumes, household names in coffee evoke thoughts of Starbucks, Lavazza, and Nestlé, making it tough for Vietnamese brands to penetrate the premium segment.
Agricultural economist Dinh Van Thanh cautioned that if Vietnam persists in its reliance on raw exports, it risks being reduced to merely an “ingredient factory” for larger corporations. A robust long-term strategy aimed at investment in deep processing and enhancing the national coffee brand on the global stage is imperative.
Despite the challenges, there are encouraging developments within the industry. Trung Nguyên Legend is working to expand its instant coffee exports to the Middle East and Eastern Europe, while Vinacafé is honing its focus on the ASEAN market. Meanwhile, enterprising start-ups in Lam Dong and Gia Lai are launching specialty coffee brands aimed at markets such as Japan and South Korea. In a clever twist, rather than merely selling raw beans, these innovators are partnering with companies to process roasted coffee for direct sale in South Korea, with prices that can be double that of unprocessed beans, ultimately benefiting farmers.
Experts have outlined three strategic areas for the Vietnamese coffee industry to capitalize on high prices and broaden export potential. First, there is a compelling need for investment in deep processing technology. The government should consider implementing preferential credit policies for businesses that invest in production lines for instant and specialty coffee. Second, building a national coffee brand akin to Thailand’s Jasmine rice or Colombia’s Arabica coffee is critical for establishing a strong global presence. Lastly, targeting emerging markets such as the Middle East, South Asia, and Eastern Europe, where coffee demand is rapidly increasing, could provide a fertile ground for expanding the reach of processed Vietnamese coffee.
How has climate change affected global coffee prices?
A recent study revealed that global coffee prices increased by about 40% in 2024, largely due to unfavorable weather conditions that impacted production in key coffee-producing countries.
What role does Vietnam play in the global coffee market?
Vietnam is the largest exporter of Robusta coffee, holding about 40% of the global market share. The country is now focusing on deepening its processing capabilities to enhance its market position.
What strategies are being suggested for the growth of Vietnam’s coffee sector?
Experts recommend investing in deep processing technology, building a national coffee brand, and targeting emerging markets like the Middle East and Eastern Europe to capitalize on growing coffee demand.
