Things are not exactly looking up.
The bad news continues for Hong Kong’s downtown duty free and travel retailers such as DFS as the latest retail sales statistics show another month-on-month decline.
July government data provisionally indicate that the value of total retail sales in July fell by -7.7% to $34.6bn/$4.46bn, compared with July 2015. This means that for the first seven months of 2016, the value of total retail sales decreased by -10.1% compared with the same period in 2015.
The trend in department stores was slightly better: in July they fell by -6.9% and by -8.7% in the first seven months of the year.
The graph above shows the rate of change on a monthly basis for all retail sales in Hong Kong and it suggests that since the second quarter of 2015 there has been continuous downward, negative pressure on sales [the spikes reflect the timings of Chinese New Year].
HIGH-VALUE ITEMS HAMMERED
By those product categories most relevant to duty free, the figures showed a very mixed performance in July. Value sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and ‘valuable gifts’ took a beating, decreasing by -26.2% as did electrical goods and photographic equipment (-21.8%), while footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories held their ground at (-1.1%).
The tourism trend this year looks worse than in 2015 which is a worry.
The overall negative trend has been attributed to the depressed tourist traffic coming to Hong Kong, particularly from China. While the July figures are not yet available, in the half-year to June visitor arrivals fell by -7.4% to 27.16m, with mainland Chinese traffic falling by over -10%.
This follows an inbound decline of -2.9% to 59.3m in 2015, but a spending decline of -7.5% to HK$332.3bn. Of the 59.3m, Mainland China continued to be the largest visitor source market accounting for 77% of total arrivals.