The operations of American beverage titan Starbucks in China have recently shown signs of resilience, reporting flat same-store sales for the quarter ending March 30. This performance stands in stark contrast to an 8% decline in the same category for the year ending September 29. Notably, the company’s operating revenue rose by 5% year on year, reaching an impressive US$740 million in the latest quarter.
Richard Lin, chief consumer analyst at SPDB International, praised Starbucks’ strategy of exchanging lower ticket sizes for increased transaction volumes. According to Lin, this reflects the company’s determination to protect its market share amidst ongoing price competition in China. Over the past year, Starbucks has poured significant resources into expansion, adding 665 new stores to its network, bringing its total to 7,758 outlets and solidifying its status as the largest non-U.S. market for the brand.
In the race for coffee supremacy, Luckin Coffee, Starbucks’ chief competitor, is making notable strides as well. The company’s operating revenue jumped by a staggering 41% in the first quarter to CNY 8.9 billion (approximately US$1.2 billion), with net profits of CNY 737 million reversing a loss from the same period the previous year. Luckin also expanded aggressively, adding 1,743 stores across China and reaching a total of 24,097 locations. Same-store sales at its company-operated sites increased by 8%, driven by a strategic focus on afternoon tea products designed to attract a broad customer base.
Analysts from China Merchants Securities have observed that Luckin’s store expansion has surpassed expectations, coupled with rising customer spending. With their stable supply chain and cost advantages, the company is poised to continue capturing market share, despite some short-term increases in coffee bean prices.
The growth narrative doesn’t end with the major cities. A burgeoning trend is evident as data reveals that smaller cities in China are emerging as surprising growth hubs for beverage chains, eclipsing their larger counterparts in growth potential. Over the past year, more than 66,900 coffee shops opened, with remarkable growth in “new first-tier” cities—urban locales that are increasingly asserting their influence on the national stage. Chengdu, for instance, witnessed the launch of nearly 2,000 new coffee shops, while Hangzhou added over 1,700 to its burgeoning coffee scene.
Interestingly, third-tier cities and smaller towns are now home to almost 45% of China’s coffee shop population. Recent findings from shopping platform Meituan highlighted a staggering 97% increase in coffee orders in these less urbanized areas, accompanied by a 159% rise in coffee shop numbers.
As Lin pointed out, while the coffee market in higher-tier cities nears saturation, the lower-tier markets represent fertile ground for expansion. He believes that as chains keep prices affordable, they will cultivate a new generation of coffee drinkers who are eager to learn more about their brews.
With China’s coffee industry boasting a market value of CNY 624 billion in 2024, projections indicate that this figure could skyrocket to CNY 1 trillion this year, presenting a tantalizing vista for both established players and eager newcomers alike.
What contributed to Starbucks’ stable performance in China?
Starbucks has adopted a strategy of lowering ticket sizes to boost transaction volume, which has helped maintain its market share amid fierce price competition.
How has Luckin Coffee fared against Starbucks?
Luckin Coffee has experienced impressive growth, achieving a 41% increase in operating revenue, and reversing previous losses through aggressive expansion and innovative product offerings.
What trends are emerging in China’s coffee market?
Smaller cities are rapidly becoming more significant players in the coffee market, demonstrating higher growth rates in both coffee shop openings and consumer demand than their larger urban counterparts.
