Vietnam’s economy is doing a celebratory dance. A report from UOB’s Global Economics & Market Research Unit reveals that in the second quarter of 2025, Vietnam’s real GDP soared by an impressive 7.96% year-on-year, well surpassing Bloomberg’s forecast of 6.85% and UOB’s own prediction of 6.1%. This uptick follows a revised growth figure of 7.05% from the first quarter, highlighting a vibrant and resilient economy.
Throughout the first half of this year, Vietnam’s GDP achieved an astonishing growth of 7.52% year-on-year, marking the highest rate recorded since data collection began in 2011. This remarkable performance can largely be attributed to businesses ramping up export orders during a 90-day window when the U.S. temporarily suspended reciprocal tariffs, replacing them with a standard 10% tariff rate.
In the first six months of 2025, Vietnam’s export turnover surged by 14.4% compared to the same period last year, reaching $219 billion, while imports rose by 17.9% to $212 billion. These figures are nearly equivalent to the full-year growth rate witnessed in 2024, creating a picture of a robust trading environment.
However, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Vietnam’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggests that the manufacturing sector still faces hurdles, having recorded six readings below the crucial 50-point threshold over the last seven months. This indicates ongoing challenges, particularly stemming from a dip in new orders. Alarmingly, the most recent data from S&P Global shows that export orders in June dropped at the steepest rate since September 2021, mirroring the declines observed in May 2023.
With recent positive shifts in trade talks with the U.S., experts at UOB are cautiously optimistic, suggesting that the worst may be behind Vietnam, although tariffs continue to pose a significant challenge. In response to the adjusted U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods, UOB has revised its export forecast. Rather than the previously anticipated 20% decline, they now expect exports to the U.S. to grow modestly by 5%. Meanwhile, exports to other markets are projected to rise by 10%, closely aligning with the 11.3% increase recorded last year.
Overall, Vietnam’s exports are anticipated to climb by 8.5% in 2025 — a notable deceleration from the 14% growth recorded in 2024. Taking all of this into account, UOB’s Global Economics & Market Research Unit has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for 2025, now predicting a rise of 0.9 percentage points, projecting a growth of 6.9% compared to the earlier estimate of 6.0%.
On the monetary policy front, UOB indicates that the strong economic performance may reduce the urgency for further policy easing. As such, the bank expects the State Bank of Vietnam to keep its current policy rates steady, maintaining the refinancing rate at 4.5%.
How does Vietnam’s GDP growth in the second quarter compare to past performance?
Vietnam’s GDP growth of 7.96% in Q2 2025 is the highest growth since data collection began in 2011, significantly exceeding forecasts by both UOB and Bloomberg.
What are the main factors driving Vietnam’s economic growth in 2025?
The acceleration in export orders during a temporary suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. plays a critical role, alongside a robust increase in both exports and imports.
What challenges does Vietnam’s manufacturing sector currently face?
The manufacturing sector struggles with a declining Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and a significant drop in new export orders, reflecting ongoing vulnerabilities in the industry.
