Vietnam’s economy is on a remarkable upswing, with the latest data from UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research unit indicating a booming GDP expansion of 7.52% in the first half of the year—the fastest growth for this period since 2011. This vibrant increase is largely driven by a notable 14% surge in exports, fueled further by a boost in market sentiment following U.S. President Donald Trump’s temporary reduction of reciprocal tariffs to a baseline rate of 10% for 90 days.
The elimination of tariff uncertainties in the second half of the year has set the stage for Vietnamese exports, with specific rates now locked in ahead of the August deadline. Vietnam faces a 20% levy but remains hopeful; UOB forecasts a solid 10% growth in exports for 2025, building on last year’s impressive 14% growth.
Additional indicators reflect Vietnam’s economic resilience. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rebounded to 52.4 in July, emerging from three months of contraction. Meanwhile, industrial output surged by 9% year-on-year, indicating robust manufacturing activity amidst fluctuating global conditions.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has also shown signs of vitality, reaching $13.6 billion as of July, a rise from $12.6 billion the previous year. Analysts suggest that full-year inflows could exceed $20 billion, although this would still trail last year’s total of $25.4 billion.
In a bid to solidify growth, Vietnam’s government announced an ambitious $48 billion infrastructure investment plan in mid-August, encompassing 250 projects. This plan prioritizes urban development and transport, with 129 projects financed at a cost of $18 billion, while the remaining 121 projects—valued at $30.5 billion—will attract financing from foreign entities.
UOB maintains its outlook for 2026 at a consistent 7% growth rate, with the Vietnamese government aiming for a target GDP growth of 8.3-8.5% for the current year. UOB analysts suggest that the strong second-half outlook, coupled with ongoing pressures on the Vietnamese dong, will likely keep the central bank’s refinancing rate steady at 4.5%. If drastic weakening of business conditions occurs, a reduction to a pandemic-era low of 4% could be considered—though this scenario remains unlikely.
On the currency front, the dong may find itself struggling to capitalize on a potential weakening of the U.S. dollar, likely to occur once the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates. Nevertheless, UOB forecasts that dollar exchange rates will ease gradually, projecting VND26,300 in the last quarter of this year, VND26,200 in the following quarter, and VND26,000 by the third quarter of 2026.
How is Vietnam’s GDP growth in the first half of this year compared to past years?
Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.52% in the first half of the year, marking the fastest expansion for that period since 2011.
What are the key drivers behind this growth?
The robust growth is primarily attributed to a significant 14% increase in exports, supported by positive market sentiment following tariff reductions announced by the U.S. government.
What steps is the Vietnamese government taking to sustain economic growth?
Vietnam unveiled a $48 billion infrastructure investment plan covering 250 projects, with a focus on urban development and transport, showing a strong commitment to enhancing economic foundations.
