Standard Chartered Bank has revised its economic growth forecast for Vietnam this year from an initial prediction of 6.1% to a more promising 7.5%. In its most recent macroeconomic report, Standard Chartered also adjusted its growth prospect for the country for 2026, from 6.2% to a promising 7.2%.
A key factor highlighted by Standard Chartered Bank was Vietnam’s expanding role in the global supply chain. This elevation is largely fueled by the country’s robust trading performance and deepening integration into international commerce through various free trade agreements. In September, Vietnam’s exports reached a staggering US$42.7 billion, a 24.7% increase compared to the previous year. This impressive growth was spearheaded by key sectors such as electronics and computers (up 66.2%), telephones (17.5%), and machinery (11.6%).
Simultaneously, imports saw a 24.9% increase to $39.8 billion, with electronics and computer supplies (up 43.6%) and machinery (up 33.6%) leading the charge. These numbers indicate a consistent expansion in production and industrial capacity in Vietnam.
Standard Chartered Bank highlighted Vietnam’s resilient external position, bolstered by solid trade and a stable foreign exchange outlook. After previously being depleted due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, it is anticipated that the country’s FX reserves will be rebuilt. This reflects an improved macroeconomic stability and a healthy trade performance.
As another positive economic indicator, the growth of domestic credit has also sped up, suggesting a continued economic recovery without requiring policy rate cuts. Current credit growth surpasses 15% year on year, which indicates growing business confidence and a higher demand for finance. The bank also pointed out that lending growth continues to be robust, supported by favourable liquidity conditions and government initiatives to stimulate growth.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) remains a significant contributor to growth. In the first nine months of 2025, the amount of disbursed FDI increased by 8.5% year on year, amounting to $18.8 billion, while registered FDI surged by 15.2% to $28.5 billion.
Looking ahead, Standard Chartered economists predict the refinancing rate to remain at 4.5% for the remainder of this year and 2026, with favourable conditions encouraging investment and expansion. Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered, praised Vietnam’s resilience and adaptability, which have been demonstrated through its strong FDI inflows and robust export growth. These factors have reinforced its strategic role in the diversification of the global supply chain and suggest an optimistic outlook for continued economic expansion.
The bank also maintained its forecast for the USD/VND exchange rate at VND26,300 for this year and VND26,750 for 2026, while lowering inflation projections to 3.4% for 2025 and 3.7% for next year. These updated figures were based on stronger-than-expected growth momentum and easing price pressures.
What is the revised economic growth forecast for Vietnam in 2026?
Standard Chartered Bank has revised the economic growth forecast for Vietnam in 2026 from 6.2% to 7.2%.
What factors have led to the growth of Vietnam’s role in the global supply chain?
The growth of Vietnam’s role in the global supply chain is primarily due to its strong trading performance and its deepening integration into international commerce through several free trade agreements.
How is the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) contributing to Vietnam’s economy?
FDI is a significant contributor to Vietnam’s economy. In the first nine months of 2025, discharged FDI increased by 8.5% year on year, reaching $18.8 billion whereas registered FDI surged by 15.2% to $28.5 billion. This robust FDI inflow is a testament to Vietnam’s resilience and adaptability, indicating a positive outlook for continued economic expansion.
