Thailand’s property market is navigating a turbulent landscape, with new condo launches plummeting by a staggering 94% year-on-year, resulting in only 373 units introduced in the first half of the year. This downturn marks the lowest level since 2009, a year when the market was still shaking off the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis, surpassing even the declines experienced during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a recent report by property service firm Colliers Thailand.
This alarming trend has prompted a crucial reassessment of strategies among property developers and market analysts alike. “This is not merely a seasonal slowdown but rather a pronounced reflection of buyer hesitation and a cautious approach from developers,” stated Pattarachai Thaweewong, director of research at Colliers International Thailand. He emphasized that, despite a slight uptick in the market between 2022 and 2023, there is still a long way to go before it regains its pre-crisis momentum.
The downturn in 2025 is particularly stark when viewed against the historical backdrop, where the second quarter typically sees an average of 8,000 to 12,000 new condo launches each year. The supply crisis has persisted from the previous quarter, evidenced by the installation of 6,306 new condo units in Bangkok—an impressive 72% increase compared to last year, but a troubling 35% decline from the fourth quarter of 2024, as reported by Bangkok Post.
Thaweewong attributes this substantial drop to several key factors: high interest rates are significantly impeding the purchasing power of genuine buyers, while rising costs for construction materials and land are squeezing developer profit margins. Furthermore, ongoing economic uncertainty paired with an unclear government policy direction continues to erode confidence in the market.
In light of these challenges, many developers are opting to delay new project launches, shifting their focus towards mitigating existing inventory while bolstering cash flow—a prudent but perhaps surprising strategy in a market where fresh launches are typically anticipated. Interestingly, as the Bangkok market cools, property developers are pivoting towards Thailand’s vibrant southern island, Phuket. This shift aims to capitalize on the burgeoning demand from tourists and retirees primarily from China and the U.S.
Colliers reports that around 10,000 new flats are set to hit Phuket’s market this year, with new project launches taking place weekly, creating a scenario reminiscent of a frenetic game of real estate Tetris, as developers scramble to align their offerings with market demand, as mentioned by South China Morning Post.
What caused the significant decline in new condo launches in Thailand?
High interest rates, escalating development costs, and ongoing economic uncertainties are primary factors leading to buyer hesitation and developer caution.
How does the current condo launch situation compare to previous years?
The current figures show a 94% year-on-year decline, marking the lowest level of new launches since 2009, significantly less than the second quarter average of 8,000 to 12,000 launches seen over the last decade.
Where are developers focusing their efforts amid the downturn in Bangkok?
Developers are increasingly targeting Phuket, with plans for around 10,000 new flats this year, catering to rising demand from tourists and retirees from abroad.
