Citi has painted a nuanced picture of Vietnam’s economy, indicating that stricter enforcement of rules regarding origin certification might create hurdles for the country’s export growth in the coming months. With the Vietnamese government issuing directives in April to enhance inspections and supervision of goods’ origins, the implications of these changes remain a bit foggy. As a result, companies may face delays as stricter post-deal inspections take effect, leading to a potential slowdown in the anticipated rebound of export growth come Q3.
In June, year-on-year export growth saw a minor decline to 16%, down from May’s 17%, prompting Citi to adjust its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 to 7%, up from an earlier estimate of 6.6%. This optimistic adjustment is bolstered by Vietnam’s robust economic performance in the second quarter of the year.
Vietnam experienced impressive GDP growth of 8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, surpassing expectations and improving from the 7% growth registered in Q1. This acceleration was primarily fueled by manufacturing, which contributed an additional 0.5 percentage points, likely spurred by frontloading activity from the U.S. While manufacturing shines, Citi underscores that intensified growth was also supported by domestically-focused sectors, demonstrating a balanced economic foundation.
Minh Ngo, Citi’s Vietnam Markets Head and Country Treasurer, explained that the bank is keen on bridging global clients with local markets and vice versa. “Our commitment to supporting Vietnam’s growth is evident in our cutting-edge solutions in FX hedging, rates and commodities derivatives, liquidity management, and structured funding for a diverse clientele which includes corporate, commercial, public sector, and investor clients,” stated Ngo.
He added, “With our expansive global network and international footprint, we provide clients a considerable edge, empowering them to navigate the ever-evolving market landscape and refine their operations and supply chains to meet the challenges of dynamic external conditions.” In a vibrant market like Vietnam, there’s always the potential for surprising twists — who knew navigating regulations could become the economy’s newest sport?
What factors are currently affecting Vietnam’s export growth?
Stricter enforcement of origin certification and enhanced inspections are leading to potential delays and hurdles in export growth.
How has Citi adjusted its economic forecast for Vietnam?
Citi has increased its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 from 6.6% to 7% following strong performance metrics from Q2.
What is Citi’s strategy for supporting its clients in Vietnam?
Citi aims to connect global clients with local markets and offers solutions in FX hedging, liquidity management, and more to help navigate the complex market landscape.
