The latest findings from Savills, based on a semi-annual survey by the Japan Real Estate Institute (JREI) and BAC Urban Projects, paint a promising picture for retail in Tokyo. Average asking rents for first-floor (1F) units have increased by 3.0% quarter-on-quarter, despite a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year. Meanwhile, non-1F units have seen a more significant rise, with rents up 4.3% on a quarterly basis and 2.8% on an annual one. This overall performance highlights the resilience of Tokyo’s prime retail markets, fueled by robust growth in inbound tourism, which has tightened the availability of sought-after retail spaces in tourist-heavy areas.
The Japan Department Stores Association recently reported staggering figures for 2024, indicating that nationwide department store sales soared to JPY5.8 trillion—an increase of 6.8% year-on-year. Duty-free sales also experienced a remarkable upswing, climbing 85.9% year-on-year to a hefty JPY648.7 billion, largely driven by tourists splurging on luxury goods. As Japan continues to solidify its status as a favored travel destination, the number of inbound visitors reached nearly 37 million in 2024, with projections suggesting this will exceed 40 million in 2025. Talk about a shopping spree!
Expenditure per inbound tourist has been on the rise as well, reaching an impressive JPY227,000 per traveler in 2024—a staggering 43% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. The total spending by foreign tourists hit a remarkable JPY8.1 trillion, reflecting a 53% growth over 2023, albeit still hovering around just 1.5% of Japan’s GDP, according to the Japan Tourism Agency (JTA).
The numbers indicate a promising trend for the industry, with inbound tourists already surpassing 10 million in the first quarter of 2025—up about 23% from the same period in 2024. The resurgence of Chinese visitors is particularly striking, with 2.4 million arrivals recorded in Q1/2025, marking a 78% increase year-on-year. This rebound can be partly attributed to the recently relaxed visa application process for Chinese nationals, opening the floodgates for eager shoppers.
The successful launch of the Expo 2025 in Osaka is set to draw an estimated 28 million attendees, further bolstering inbound tourism. Meanwhile, domestic spending remains robust, buoyed by ongoing strong wage growth, creating a favorable environment for retail. As shoppers eye both domestic and luxury items, the future of Japan’s retail market promises to sparkle with potential.
What factors are contributing to the growth of rental prices for retail spaces in Tokyo?
The increase in rental prices is primarily driven by strong inbound tourism, which boosts demand for retail spaces in prime locations, as well as a sense of scarcity in high-traffic areas.
How has spending by inbound tourists changed in recent years?
Inbound tourist expenditure has skyrocketed, reaching nearly JPY227,000 per traveler in 2024, marking a 43% increase compared to 2019, with total spending reaching JPY8.1 trillion, a 53% rise from 2023.
What impact is Expo 2025 expected to have on Japan’s retail market?
Expo 2025 in Osaka is projected to attract 28 million attendees, further enhancing inbound tourism and, consequently, retail spending, creating a positive outlook for the market.
