Today marks a pivotal moment for UBS as the Swiss Federal Council is set to unveil its stance on capital requirements for systemically important banks. For UBS, the outlook is likely grim, but this narrative is far from over.
The spotlight today is on Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter, who is anticipated to clarify how much capital Switzerland’s major banks will need to hold. The proposed regulation primarily targets UBS, which has transformed into the nation’s largest bank after integrating Credit Suisse. With total assets amounting to 1.7 trillion francs, UBS’s balance sheet now towers over Switzerland’s annual GDP, representing a significant risk in times of crisis.
UBS Group CEO Sergio Ermotti has been vocal about the importance of the bank’s business model over its sheer size. The lingering question, however, is whether this message has struck a chord in Bern, and doubts linger.
Most analysts predict that the Federal Council will recommend tougher capital requirements for UBS. The expectation is that the bank will need to bolster its foreign subsidiaries with 100 percent capital, up from the current 60 percent. This move aligns with suggestions from the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (Finma) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
Reports hinting that Finance Minister Keller-Sutter might appease lobbying efforts from UBS’s top brass are being dismissed as mere speculation, grounded in information available prior to the bank stability report presented back on April 10, 2024.
The prospect of stricter regulations presents a sobering outlook for UBS’s leadership, who have invested significant effort over the past year and a half to avert such a scenario. Heightened capital requirements hinder the bank’s ambition to rival U.S. banking titans on a global scale. UBS believes the stricter rules could inflate its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, a key indicator of capital health, to between 17 and 19 percent. For context, American banks like Morgan Stanley trail with a CET1 ratio of 13.5 percent.
These proposed changes are not likely to sit well with UBS’s shareholders, as they could exert downward pressure on the bank’s stock. A crucial factor will be the timeline provided for UBS to boost its capital ratio; periods shorter than ten years are generally viewed unfavorably by financial analysts. Moreover, these higher requirements could jeopardize future share buyback initiatives, with UBS previously aiming to surpass a $5.6 billion buyback volume by 2026. Yet, bank officials have asserted that such programs would only proceed if the CET1 ratio remains at 14 percent and significant changes to capital requirements do not arise immediately.
Media speculations suggest that UBS may consider relocating its headquarters should it be compelled to hold more capital. Nonetheless, UBS Executive Board member Markus Ronner dismissed these rumors as baseless during a recent appearance on Swiss TV’s Arena program. Yet, it’s conceivable that higher capital regulations could render UBS a tempting acquisition target, especially if its stock price declines significantly.
Another potential strategy could see UBS adopt the so-called Holcim principle, perhaps spinning off riskier operations and relocating them abroad. One plausible path might involve separating its investment banking division and migrating it to London, a concept recalling the pre-2008 discussions around the Glass-Steagall Act that once mandated such divisions in the U.S.
The Federal Council’s proposals will transition into a consultation phase, with a final proposal expected by year’s end. Subsequently, it will be in the hands of the National Council and the Council of States. Gauging the sentiment in Parliament remains challenging at this stage, and a public referendum could also be on the table. As it stands, clarity on this matter remains elusive and will likely take considerable time to emerge.
What is the expected change in UBS’s capital requirements?
The Federal Council is likely to require UBS to back its foreign subsidiaries with 100 percent capital, up from the current 60 percent.
How might the capital requirements impact UBS’s ambitions?
Stricter regulations could hinder UBS’s competitiveness against U.S. banks and may pressure its stock, impacting potential share buyback programs.
Is relocation a serious consideration for UBS?
While there are speculations about relocating its headquarters, UBS has dismissed such plans, highlighting that no concrete decisions have been made.
