In the Central Highlands provinces of Dak Lak, Gia Lai, and Kon Tum, coffee prices have taken a significant dip, plummeting 30% from the peak of VND135,000 reached in March. This downward trend in coffee prices is not limited to Vietnam; it mirrors a broader decline seen across the global market in recent months.
Currently, Robusta coffee for September delivery is priced at $3,737 per ton, while Arabica fetches $6,950. The cause of this price shift can largely be traced back to Brazil, the world’s foremost coffee exporter, which initiated its harvest in May, yielding more than anticipated. This surplus has contributed to a notable increase in global supply, putting further pressure on prices.
In Asia, Indonesia is ramping up its robusta exports in response to rising production levels, adding to the already steep competition and exerting downward pressure on prices. It’s a classic case of supply and demand, where larger harvests create a buyer’s market. Meanwhile, as global capital flows gravitate toward the stability of the U.S. dollar amid economic uncertainties, coffee—priced in dollars—has become comparatively more expensive for consumers using other currencies. This shift has dampened international demand, prompting necessary price corrections.
In light of these market conditions, coffee sellers are keen to capitalize on quick sales, actively seeking to ensure profits which, in turn, has accelerated the short-term decline in prices. Despite these challenges, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2025-2026 season will reach 31 million bags, a 6.9% increase from the previous year.
Farmers in key growing regions like Dak Lak and Kon Tum are finding reason for optimism this year, buoyed by favorable weather conditions that have thus far limited the impacts of climate change on their crops. Notably, plantations that were replanted four years ago are now entering a high-yield phase, reinforcing production forecasts.
Vietnam’s coffee exports have also been strong, with the country shipping 823,900 tons in the first five months of 2025, raking in $4.7 billion, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade. This translates to an average export price of $5,709 per ton—including processed coffee—a staggering 63% increase year-on-year. Major markets driving this demand include Germany, Italy, Spain, the U.S., and Japan. Emerging markets in the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas are also stepping up, making significant contributions to Vietnam’s burgeoning coffee export landscape. Hold onto your coffee cups; the retail brew scene is definitely brewing up a storm.
What recent trend has been observed in coffee prices in Vietnam?
Coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands have dropped by 30% from their March peak of VND135,000, reflecting a global decline in coffee prices.
How is Brazil impacting global coffee supply?
Brazil’s coffee harvest, which began in May, is exceeding expectations, leading to a substantial increase in global supply and putting downward pressure on coffee prices worldwide.
What are the projections for Vietnam’s coffee production?
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2025-2026 season will reach 31 million bags, marking a 6.9% increase compared to the previous season.
